When we last checked, Valentin Castellanos had the best odds (+350) to finish as Major League Soccer’s top scorer this season. There has been a major shakeup at the top since then, with Castellanos transferred to Girona of Spain for $15 million.
Castellanos had a league-high 13 goals in 16 games before he left. As of right moment, there are six other players ahead of him on the scoreboard. In light of Castellanos’s transfer to a European club, how have the betting lines changed?
2022 MLS Golden Boot Odds
Who Is Sebastian Driussi, the Favorite to Win the MLS Golden Boot?
After being signed from Zenit Saint Petersburg in Russia, the offensive midfielder for Austin FC is now in his second season in Major League Soccer.
In his debut season with Austin, Driussi was unable to live up to the hype, as he only managed five goals. However, in 26 games in his second season with Austin, he has scored 18 goals, good for about 0.70 goals per game. Compared to his first season with Austin, that’s over 2.5 times as many goals per game.
Driussi is in the 90th percentile or higher for shooting % per 90 minutes, projected goals per 90 minutes, and goal-creating actions per 90 minutes as compared to other attacking midfielders in the MLS during the previous 365 days. Austin FC’s management had high hopes for him when they acquired him from Zenit, and he has lived up to those expectations in the MLS.
The +1200 chances that Driussi’s Austin FC will win the MLS Cup are third best. A wager of $100 on Driussi to win the Golden Boot and another $100 on Austin to win the title would provide a $1,280 profit, assuming both outcomes are likely.
Vegas Odds for the Major League Soccer Golden Boot: Good OKBET Bets
Mukhtar Hany (+1200)
The Nashville SC striker is now second in the Golden Boot standings, two goals behind Driussi, but he has the fourth-worst chances of catching and passing Driussi. The next games for Nashville might be hurting Mukhtar’s chances.
Their remaining schedule is the eleventh toughest in the league. Nonetheless, the only teams Mukhtar hasn’t scored against since he got on his incredible goal-scoring pace in May (14 goals in 15 games) are those that aren’t in the postseason picture. The German striker often finds the back of the net when facing up against elite teams.
Our odds calculator offers him a 7.69 percent implied chance to win, but at +1200, a $100 bet on him to win the MLS Golden Boot would generate a nice $1,200 profit.
Jesus Ferreira (plus 900 years)
The American forward is currently only three goals behind league leader Sebastian Driussi after scoring three in his past two outings.
He has scored three times in recent games, and his statistics don’t support the idea that this is just chance. He has improved his shot creation rate from 2.4 per game to 3.2 per game during his previous five contests. His goals-per-game average has also improved, from 0.37 to 0.46.
Hany Mukhtar Wins the MLS Golden Boot
He has scored in four consecutive games (scoring five times) and has scored 14 times in his past 15 outings, showing remarkable form. Among the players with the highest chances of winning the Golden Boot, his remaining schedule may not be the simplest. Brandon Vazquez of Cincinnati FC has the record for most goals scored. The remainder of Cincinnati’s schedule is the seventh easiest in the league.
However, we all know that Mukhtar has a tougher difficulty scoring against lower-ranked opponents. He thrives against more challenging opposition.
MLS Golden Boot – Last 10 Winners
- 2012 – Chris Wondolowski (27)
- 2013 – Camilo Sanvezzo (22)
- 2014 – Bradley Wright-Phillips (27)
- 2015 – Sebastian Giovinco (22) & Kei Kamara (22)
- 2016 – Bradley Wright-Phillips (24)
- 2017 – Nemanja Nikolic (24)
- 2018 – Josef Martinez (31)
- 2019 – Carlos Vela (31)
- 2020 – Diego Rossi (14)
- 2021 – Valentin Castellanos (19)
Former Manchester City player Bradley Wright-Phillips is the first player to win the MLS Golden Boot award in back-to-back seasons. The Englishman had an impressive Major League Soccer career, scoring 117 goals in 234 total games played, or around one goal every other game. Excellent.
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