Through the first five weeks of the 2022-23 season, it’s clear why Erling Haaland was the preseason favorite to win the Premier League Golden Boot. So far this season, the young Norwegian is four goals ahead of the next-best goal scorer in the English Premier League.
BetOnline Sportsbook now has Haaland pegged as a -350 favorite to win the Golden Boot. Harry Kane, of Tottenham, is now the second-favorite striker, with odds of +900. Gabriel Jesus of Arsenal rounds out the top three with +1100 odds.
Visit our Premier League computer selections page for daily predictions on each game in addition to the Premier League Golden Boot odds.
Probabilities of Winning the Premier League Golden Boot
Golden Boot Odds in the Premier League
Erling Haaland is the popular pick for the Premier League Golden Boot. Securing the Odds of Leading Scorer
The six-game goal total was 10. Incredible. Just think about how Mohamed Salah and Heung-min Son scored a combined 23 goals to win the Golden Boot last season. Only in 16% of the games played has Haaland come close to duplicating their output from 2021-22. Once again, Haaland has created an outstanding work.
The striker for Manchester City has scored in every game this season save for City’s 4-0 rout of Bournemouth. During this current stretch, he has scored in eight consecutive games. Through six games this season, he has a 0.64 shots-on-goal conversion rate, 1.37 anticipated goals created, and 1.22 non-penalty expected goals created per 90 minutes played.
Haaland’s move from Dortmund to Manchester City seems like the steal of the Premier League and summer transfer window of 2022, and whomever arranged the deal should be promoted instantly. Incredible business move on the part of City, who could have gotten at least £30 million more for Haaland had Dortmund decided to sell.
Haaland’s Manchester City now have the greatest odds to win the Premier League at -145, which, based on our odds calculator, equates to implied chances of 59.18 percent.
Value At Its Finest In The Premier League Boots of Gold
Aleksandar Mitrovic (born in 2000)
For weeks, I’ve been recommending Mitrovic as a top value Golden Boot contender. Fulham’s striker has responded to the team’s confidence in him by scoring six goals in the first six games. That already exceeds his goal-scoring total from Fulham’s last season in the Premier League in 2020-21 by more than a factor of two.
Mitro’s odds haven’t moved much in recent weeks because of who he plays for, which is a problem. Fulham has a Premier League-low 62 shot-creating actions from live passes, making them one of the worst shot-creating clubs overall. The only team with less shots than us is Bournemouth, with just 38 shot-creating activities. Compared to Haaland, Mitrovic will require consistent goal scoring to win this accolade, and his support from the team is lacking.
Willian, Daniel James, and Carlos Vinicius were all signed at the last minute of the transfer window, so maybe that’s what they need.
Our odds calculator puts Mitrovic’s estimated chances of winning the Premier League Golden Boot at +2000, or 4.76 percent. If you bet on Mitrovic and he wins, you get $2,000 back.
Do you believe that Mitrovic will not only rule England, but the whole World Cup as well? The chances of him earning the Golden Boot at the 2022 World Cup are +5000.
+1600 for Mohamed Salah.
If you’re looking for value, +1600 on a player who has won the Premier League Golden Boot three times would be a good bet. However, that’s not without explanation. The Egyptian striker’s lack of production (only two goals in six games) is out of character. He has six goals in the first six games of the 2021-22 season, up from five in the same span last year.
Salah isn’t only unable to find the back of the net; he’s also failing to create. Since joining Liverpool in 2017-18, he has never had a season with a lower predicted goals per 90 minutes than this one (0.42). Liverpool, though, hasn’t exactly gotten off to a stellar start to the year. The 2019 Premier League champion has a lethargic 9 points in 18 games.
If Liverpool’s fortunes improve, it stands to reason that Mohamed Salah’s would as well. If he can turn things around and win his fourth EPL Golden Boot, a bettor who puts down $100 stands to make $1,600.
Erling Haaland is the favorite to win the Premier League Golden Boot.
I’m guessing you bet Haaland would win the English Premier League Golden Boot. City’s attacker was +150 to score just two weeks ago. Seven goals have been scored by the Norwegian since then.
One of the safest bets here is still backing Haaland to come out on top. However, at this time, you may choose to hold off till the queue decreases.
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